Seismic risk prioritization of a large portfolio of dams: Revisited

Abstract

The development of potential failure mode analysis and risk analysis has greatly improved the state-of-practice for the safety of dams. Risk analysis are well developed in many industries (such as building design, medicine, and insurance) and has greatly advanced in the dams industry over the last 40 years. Engineers and scientists are now deeply investigating and thinking about failure mechanisms associated with operating dams and the probabilities of dam failures. As such, the condition of dams and the risks associated with their operation are now being portrayed better than ever before to dam safety officials and decision-makers. Accurate and adequate risk analyses for a portfolio of dams is extremely important in today’s environment to manage limited budgets and potentially save (or redirect) expensive rehabilitations to identified and critical needs. The goal is to reduce risks of a portfolio of dams in an efficient and cost-effective manner. This article provides a review on risk-based dam terminology and bridging the semi-quantitative and numerical simulation. Moreover, a review of the current state-of-practice for prioritizing a large portfolio of dams subjected to seismic loadings and potential risks is provided. As a potential application, the seismic risk of the 18 dams (which have been experienced relatively large earthquakes) all over the world is evaluated. The semi-quantitative approach is contrasted with finite element model for one of the selected dams.