A modified method for risk evaluation in failure modes and effects analysis of aircraft turbine rotor blades

Abstract

Failure mode and effects analysis is an important methodology, which has been extensively used to evaluate the potential failures, errors, or risks in a system, design, or process. The traditional method utilizes the risk priority number ranking system. This method determines the risk priority number by multiplying failure factor values. Dempster–Shafer evidence theory has been combined with failure mode and effects analysis due to its effectiveness in dealing with uncertain and subjective information. However, since the risk evaluation of different experts may be different and some even conflict with each other, Dempster’s combination rule may become invalid. In this article, for better performance of application of evidence theory in failure mode and effects analysis, a modified method is proposed to reassign the basic believe assignment taking into consideration a reliability coefficient based on evidence distance. We illustrate several numerical examples and use the modified method to obtain the risk priority numbers for risk evaluation in failure modes of aircraft engine rotor blades. The results show that the proposed method is more reasonable and effective for real applications.