Trends in World Airline Patterns

Abstract

The article sets forth a general theory of interaction patterns between nations, based on theory and empirical research mainly in social psychology and international relations. A number of predictions generated from the theory are tested on data concerning airline connections for 125 countries in 1930, 1951, 1958, and 1965. Affiliation with a colonial system, geographical distance, and the rank of nations in the international system are all found to have a major impact on the airline patterns at all time-points, with geography and rank increasing in importance and colonial affiliation first increas ing, then decreasing in the last time-period. There conflict lines are investigated; the 'old' East-West conflict, the new Cold War around China, and the Arab-Israeli conflict. While the former sharply limited air interaction in the 'fifties', its impact is now decreasing dramatically, while the new Cold War, if anything, is becoming more pronounced, and the Arab countries and Israel remain totally disconnected as far as air interactions is concerned. The author concludes that this interaction network is developing more rapidly at the top than at the bottom, of the international system, and that the rank of a nation is becoming increasing important over time as a determinant of interaction. A policy which aims at creating a 'welfare world' with decreased dis crepancies between topdogs and underdogs must also take into account the differences in interaction possibilities. A few suggestions are given as how this might be done.