Israel and Future Borders: Assessment of a Dynamic Process

Abstract

This article deals with the question of determining a future Israeli-Palestinian border within the context of an originally developed analytical framework. Following the presentation of a previous model (Tägil et al., 1977, 1984), the authors offer a greatly modified and more detailed framework for the analysis of border determination. The modified framework emphasizes factors such as national ethos and two alternative national `imperatives' (territorial and ethnic) as important determinants of borders. The article then applies the model to the Israeli case, offering detailed historical and statistical data related to the determination of a future Israeli-Palestinian border. The article demonstrates the dramatic transformation (among Israel's elites and public alike) from a territorial to ethnic imperative and from integration (annexation of the West Bank and Gaza) to separation (Israeli withdrawal from the territories). In offering a general model for studying interstate and intercommunal conflict, and in demonstrating its applicability to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, this article is of immediate relevance to numerous other ethnic disputes around the world. The article, originally submitted three months prior to the Israeli-Palestinian mutual recognition of September 1993, has assumed particular importance by identifying the parameters that may determine the future borders in the Middle East.