Ethnic conflict goes mobile

Abstract

This analysis contributes to the body of research testing the effect of mobile phone availability on the probability of violent conflict by shifting the unit of analysis to that of distinct ethnic groups. This approach provides two important advantages. First, it tests the robustness of this relationship by determining whether this effect maintains when shifted to a more rigorous and theoretically appropriate level of analysis. Second, shifting the analysis to the group level also enables tests of specific characteristics that may condition the effect of mobile phone availability on violent collective action. The first set of characteristics test whether mobile phone availability primarily increases a group’s opportunities to engage in violent collective action as a result of decreased organizational costs due to diminished communication costs. The second set of characteristics explore whether mobile phone availability makes violent collective action more likely as a result of increasing a group’s motivation to organize, thanks to enabling more efficient communication about shared grievances between group members. The results yield mixed support for both of these potential mechanisms, providing needed insight into the dynamics at play in this relationship – a matter that very much remains in the ‘black box’ at this point in time.