Richardson Processes and Arms Transfers, 1971-1980: A Preliminary Analysis

Abstract

Arms transfers to Asian countries seem to effect an increase in military expenditures of their neighbors. An examination of Australia, US and USSR military expenditure patterns for 1971-80 in an Asian con text indicates sensitivity to arms transfers and US 'containment policy' in Asian countries. Analyses of other Asian countries (from Afghanistan to Japan) lead to similar conclusions. Lewis Fry Richardson's theory is employed in a manner which allows alternative hypotheses to be tested, supplementing his ori ginal 'arms race' formulation. Burden sharing, cooperation, and compliance among allies, and asym metric responses to perceived threat, are among the alternatives studied. Economic burden does not ap pear to affect significantly many Asian countries' ability to increase military expenditures, at least in the manner Richardson proposed, but this result may be due to the relatively low burden currently placed on the economies of most countries studied. It is concluded that Richardson's theory and general methodology may still be useful not only for the policy purposes he originally intended, but also for ob taining quantitative implications of military spending for long term problems such as environmental de gradation, economic and political development, and social change. This can be accomplished by em bedding equations similar to his into global macroeconomic and political models.