All about that base

Abstract

The current study presents evidence that partisan campaign strategies in US presidential elections have shifted in recent years to reflect a growing emphasis on base mobilization compared to persuading independent, undecided or swing voters. Pursuing reliable supporters appears to be increasingly desirable for political campaigns, especially since 2000, relative to the risky and uncertain prospects of targeting less reliable supporters. I speculate this shift is attributable, at least in part, to changes in the context in which contemporary campaigns operate, coinciding with the 2000 presidential election; advances in microtargeting, particularly through new e-campaigning and e-mobilization technologies, and behavioral science related to voter mobilization represent two of the most potent developments. By contrast, persuasion is a far more difficult and risky approach. I conclude that growing emphasis on base mobilization in elections has likely contributed to intensifying partisan polarization in America.