Giorgia on their minds: Vote switching to Fratelli d’Italia in the Italian general election of 2022

Abstract

In the context of the ongoing deinstitutionalisation of the Italian party system, Fratelli d’Italia (FdI) emerged as the most voted-for party in the 2022 general election. Although previous studies categorised FdI as a populist radical right (PRR) party, no research has so far been conducted on its voters. We examine whether the traditional explanations for the rise of PRR parties also apply to FdI. We develop a theoretical argument suggesting that in the context of over-crowded competition amongst populist parties, as seen in Italy, leadership evaluation trumps policy and ideological consideration in predicting vote switching. Our results reveal that positive evaluations of Giorgia Meloni emerge as the most significant predictor of voters switching to FdI in the 2022 election. This research sheds light on individual-level mainstreaming of PRR attitudes and preferences, in particular during an electorally expansive phase, emphasising the role of leadership evaluations in voting behaviour in a context characterised by intense populist competition.