Past and Present in Transitional Voting

Abstract

We test three sets of influences linking pre- and post-transition Poland: organizational affiliations, issue positions and economic assessments each corresponds to a different tradition in the voting behavior literature. We look at how each factor impacts on the formation of a competitive party system, employing individual voting data in a multinomial logit model using expected probabilities and factor change interpretation techniques. The findings reveal that the former organizational affiliation of both Communist Party and Solidarity members affects post-transition behavior, even while controlling for issue, economic and social variables. As for issue and economic voting, different policy issues and economic assessments affect post-communist and post-Solidarity party voters, establishing a distinct saliency for the post-communist and post-Solidarity camps, as well as for the political parties in each camp. The analysis shows that the past, whether in terms of organization, issue or economic evaluation, affects the electoral choices of voters during the post-communist transition.