Political Parties in Dire Straits?

Abstract

This article investigates the challenges that political parties face in referendums. While political parties are still key actors in a referendum campaign, a number of factors weaken their position. Ambiguous cueing, internal dissidence, electoral volatility and limited impact on citizens’ prime information sources reduce the influence of political parties. Large, centrist political parties have the worst performance record in terms of getting their voters to follow the recommendation of the party, while smaller, ideologically strongly profiled parties are more successful in aligning their voters with party policy. At the individual level, we find that, in particular, efficacious voters are likely to disregard the recommendation of their preferred party, while politically disinterested voters are more likely to follow the party endorsement. The article concludes with a discussion of the contingent nature of party control over referendums.