Latent Liberalism?

Abstract

Taking evidence from the 1997 British General Election Study, we investigate the popularity of Liberal Democrat policies - how successful the party was in converting sympathy into votes - and examine reasons behind the failure to build on its popularity. The Liberal Democrats are shown to have had popular policies and popular leadership in the 1997 election but this failed to translate into votes. A model of Liberal Democrat voting shows that established predictors of voting behaviour such as social class and age have little influence. Attitudinally, voters who hold the party leadership in high regard and who are in agreement with Liberal Democrat policies are much more likely to vote for the party. The model also shows that the Liberal Democrats performed best where they were best placed to defeat a Conservative candidate. It is argued that natural `liberals' make up only a minority of voters and only a small proportion of these actually vote for the party. Only in areas where they have a clear chance of success are they able to mobilize their latent support.