The Existence, Endogeneity, and Synchronization of Long Waves: Structural Time Series Model Estimates

Abstract

In the spirit of David Gordon's application of advanced econometric techniques to problems in political economy and his interest in long waves, this paper develops a structural time series model for testing the existence, endogeneity, and synchronization of long waves in the output series for 11 countries. The results show a strong long wave pattern with a high degree of endogenous behavior in 8 of 11 GDP series. Strong evidence for the synchronization of long waves based on international transmission mechanisms is found, while weaker evidence exists for synchronization based on similar institutional structures. Other long wave hypotheses are also addressed.