Dynamic Models of Dissent and Repression

Abstract

The connection between dissent and repression has been the topic of much theory and empirical research, but little agreement on the relationship can be found. We reconceptualize the linkage in terms of an interactive process model of changes in the grievances and resourcemobilizations of dissident movement and regime countermovement. Diachronic modeling is proposed as superior to the cross-sectional approach for unraveling dissent-repression interactions. Dynamic modeling techniques are employed to experiment with three linear “mutuality models” using the scope and intensity dimensions of dissent and repression. Our findings reveal significant similarities and differences among the models studied that would be difficult to intuit from conventional methods. Dynamic modeling of complex rivalry relationships emerges as a potentially useful methodology for constructing effective policies of conflict resolution.