Systemic Disequilibrium, Foreign Policy Role, and the Power Cycle

Abstract

Confronting widespread ambiguities of theory and research design, this article establishes conditions underlying international political stability for state and system. In turn, it (1) dissects the cycle of relative power and role to elucidate the concept of general equilibrium, depicting graphically the trauma of role adjustment that accompanies critical changes in relative power; (2) compares the empirical results for transitions and critical points using the same set of data; (3) shows mathematically that inversions in the trend of slope can approximate critical intervals; and (4) demonstrates via diagrams of each state's critical change why the disequilibrated system 1885-1914 succumbed to massive world war. Empirical research on systems transformation and major war must incorporate both strategic power balancing and power-role equilibration for states in the central system in a broader concept like general equilibrium.