Public Opinion, the War in Iraq, and Presidential Accountability

Abstract

How do citizens hold their leader accountable during an ongoing war? The authors distinguish between two models of accountability—the “decision maker” and “managerial” models—and investigate their implications in the context of the current war in Iraq. They employ a novel measurement model and a database of survey marginals to estimate weekly time series of aggregate beliefs about various aspects of the war. Consistent with the “decision maker” model, they find that shifts in aggregate support for the war have a greater impact on presidential approval than do equivalent shifts in perceptions of war success or approval of the president’s handling of the war. Conversely, aggregate perceptions of success are more responsive to casualties and key events than are aggregate beliefs about the war’s merits. This suggests that the link from casualties and events to presidential approval is less direct than previously assumed.