Stages, Turning Points, and Crises

Abstract

A framework for the analysis of processes of international negotiations is described. It construes the process as an unfolding set of stages in which turning points and crises mark passage from one stage to another. This sequence is driven by certain factors that influence negotiator activities and rhetoric. The framework is applied to the bilateral negotiations between Spain and the United States over military base rights (1975-1976). A pattern of influences and events is shown to resemble a balancing process, alternating between an intensifying influence (lack of coordination within a delegation) and a moderating influence (high-level meetings to produce a framework agreement) on the conflict. Content analysis of the discussions suggests an indicator of forthcoming impasses: A large difference between the delegations in hard or soft behavior preceded an impasse in the next round. This pattern of responsiveness has been observed in other negotiating contexts and is referred to as “threshold-adjustment.” Implications of these findings for a general model of negotiating behavior are discussed.