Publication productivity: from frequency distributions to scientometric indicators

Abstract

A new approach to scientometric indicators which is based on frequency distribution characteristics is presented. The pub lication productivity of ten major OECD countries during the 1981-1985 period is studied. A stochastic "cumulative ad vantage" process having a Waring-type stationary limit distri bution is assumed to underlie the publication process. This model makes it possible to estimate such indicators as the "Publication Potential" and the "Cumulative Advantage Coef ficient" which indicate the number of potential and of factual authors and the effect of the "success-breeds-success" phenom enon, respectively. A discussion of the publication behaviour of the scientific elite based on indicators of the distribution tail concludes the comparative evaluation.