Time of day and mammographic reader performance in a population-based breast cancer screening programme

Abstract

Objectives To analyse how reader performance varied by time during the day in a population-based breast cancer screening programme. Methods A total of 2,937,312 readings from 148 radiologists and 1,468,656 women were included in this study from Norway. Number and percentages of mammographic readings, positive scores, true and false positive readings, true and false negative readings, sensitivity and specificity were presented for categories of time of day and for each day of the week. Multilevel mixed effect logistic regression models with restricted cubic splines were fitted to the data, and used to predict the odds ratio of the different performance measures. Results The following distribution was found for the performance measures during the study period: true positive: 12,463 (0.4%); false positive: 128,419 (4.4%); true negative: 2,794,636 (95.1%); and false negative: 1794 (0.06%). The percentage of positive readings (true positive and false positive) was highest before lunch and in the early afternoon (4.9%): false positive was highest in both periods (4.5%) and true positive was highest in the early afternoon (0.5%). The percentage of true negative was highest in the evening (95.6%), and of false negative was highest at lunchtime (0.07%). This corresponds to a gradually decreasing predicted sensitivity throughout the day. The opposite was observed for specificity. Conclusions Screen-reading early versus late during the day resulted in higher sensitivity, although at the cost of specificity. Despite small differences in the performance measures during the day, the results may be important in the discussion of optimal management of screening programmes.