How the mighty are fallen: Evaluating Abe Shinzō's leadership capital in crisis

Abstract

Japanese prime ministers have traditionally been seen as consensus-builders, lacking flair, charisma and the skills to be anything other than reactive leaders, constrained by a political system which privileged a strong bureaucracy and Liberal Democratic Party structures. Recent literature has, however, begun to explore prime ministerial agency, considering the ways in which Japanese prime ministers have been able to demonstrate stronger leadership not only because of an expansion of their power resources in the core executive and the party, but also because of their individual leadership skills, style and personal attributes. Drawing on studies which have highlighted the impact of Japanese prime ministerial agency, this article uses the Leadership Capital Index (LCI) alongside insights from crisis management literature to explore the latter months of Abe Shinzō's premiership. It considers the ways in which personal factors interacted with institutional and situational factors in shaping Abe's political authority during the final year of his prime ministership, with a particular focus on the pandemic period. It asks why, when Abe had otherwise been considered one of post-war Japan's strongest and most decisive leaders, did he fall short during the Covid-19 crisis? To what extent did his personal skills and leadership style help or hinder his ability to lead during the crisis? The article suggests that the LCI offers insights into ways in which, and why, Abe's apparently strong leadership skills went missing in action during the global pandemic.