The impact of randomized trial results on abdominal aortic aneurysm repair rates from 2003 to 2016: A population-based time-series analysis

Author:

Salata Konrad12ORCID,Hussain Mohamad A12,Mestral Charles de12,Greco Elisa12,Mamdani Muhammad34567,Tu Jack V6789,Forbes Thomas L110,Bhatt Deepak L1112ORCID,Verma Subodh1314,Al-Omran Mohammed1215

Affiliation:

1. Division of Vascular Surgery, Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada

2. Division of Vascular Surgery, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute of St. Michael’s Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada

3. Li Ka Shing Centre for Healthcare Analytics Research and Training (CHART), Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada

4. Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada

5. Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada

6. Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, Dalla Lana Faculty of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada

7. Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences at Sunnybrook Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada

8. Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Schulich Heart Program, Sunnybrook Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada

9. Schulich Heart Research Program, Sunnybrook Research Institute at Sunnybrook Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada

10. Division of Vascular Surgery, Toronto General Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada

11. Brigham and Women's Hospital Heart and Vascular Center, Boston, MA, USA

12. Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA

13. Division of Cardiac Surgery, Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada

14. Division of Cardiac Surgery, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute of St. Michael’s Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada

15. Department of Surgery, King Saud University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Objectives The uptake of endovascular aortic repair for elective and ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm repair is not well studied. We aimed to examine the trends in open surgical repair and endovascular aortic repair of eAAA and rAAA and to examine the effects of randomized trial publications on elective open surgical repair and endovascular aortic repair rates. Methods We conducted a population-based time-series analysis of eAAA and rAAA repairs in Ontario, Canada from 2003 to 2016. We examined changes in overall and approach-specific rates of eAAA and rAAA repair using exponential smoothing models. Interventional autoregressive integrated moving average models were fit to the eAAA rates to examine the impact of randomized trial results on these rates. Results We identified 19,489 eAAA (12,232 open (63%) and 7257 endovascular (37%)) and 2732 rAAA (2466 open (90%) and 266 endovascular (10%)) repairs from 2003 to 2016. The rate of eAAA repair declined from 6.39/100,000 in 2003 to 5.59/100,000 in 2016 (13% decrease, p = 0.17). The rate of elective open surgical repair decreased nearly three-fold from 6.07/100,000 to 2.12/100,000 ( p < 0.0001), while elective endovascular aortic repair increased approximately 10-fold (0.32/100,000 to 3.47/100,000, p < 0.0001). The rate of ruptured open surgical repair decreased from 1.62/100,000 to 0.37/100,000 ( p < 0.44), while ruptured endovascular aortic repair uptake increased (0.00/100,000 to 0.12/100,000, p < 0.25). The mid-term results of the DREAM and EVAR-1 trials were associated with a decrease in the rate of elective open surgical repair decline after 2010 ( p = 0.01). Conclusions While elective open surgical repair use has significantly decreased from 2003 to 2016, elective endovascular aortic repair use has significantly increased. The DREAM and EVAR-1 results significantly impacted the observed rates of elective open surgical repair only. The reasons for these trends require further characterization.

Funder

Physicians' Services Incorporated Foundation

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine,Radiology Nuclear Medicine and imaging,General Medicine,Surgery

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