Issue-handling beats leadership: Issues and Leaders model predicts Clinton will defeat Trump

Author:

Graefe Andreas1

Affiliation:

1. LMU Munich, Munich, Germany

Abstract

The Issues and Leaders model predicts the national popular two-party vote in US presidential elections from people’s perceptions of the candidates’ issue-handling competence and leadership qualities. In previous elections from 1972 to 2012, the model’s Election Eve forecasts missed the actual vote shares by, on average, little more than one percentage point and thus reduced the error of the Gallup pre-election poll by 30%. This research note presents the model’s forecast prior to the 2016 election, when most polls show that voters view Republican candidate Donald Trump as the stronger leader but prefer the Democrat’s nominee Hillary Clinton when it comes to dealing with the issues. A month prior to Election Day, the model predicts that Clinton will win by four points, gaining 52.0% of the two-party vote.

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

Political Science and International Relations,Public Administration,Sociology and Political Science

Cited by 1 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

1. Of Issues and Leaders: Forecasting the 2020 US Presidential Election;PS: Political Science & Politics;2020-10-15

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