Multi-criteria decision analysis method for differential diagnosis of tropical febrile diseases

Abstract

This paper employs the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to enhance the accuracy of differential diagnosis for febrile diseases, particularly prevalent in tropical regions where misdiagnosis may have severe consequences. The migration of health workers from developing countries has resulted in frontline health workers (FHWs) using inadequate protocols for the diagnosis of complex health conditions. The study introduces an innovative AHP-based Medical Decision Support System (MDSS) incorporating disease risk factors derived from physicians’ experiential knowledge to address this challenge. The system’s aggregate diagnostic factor index determines the likelihood of febrile illnesses. Compared to existing literature, AHP models with risk factors demonstrate superior prediction accuracy, closely aligning with physicians’ suspected diagnoses. The model’s accuracy ranges from 85.4% to 96.9% for various diseases, surpassing physicians’ predictions for Lassa, Dengue, and Yellow Fevers. The MDSS is recommended for use by FHWs in communities lacking medical experts, facilitating timely and precise diagnoses, efficient application of diagnostic test kits, and reducing overhead expenses for administrators.