Affiliation:
1. Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
2. Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA
Abstract
Tropical cyclone storms can put lives at risk and produce extensive damage. In the USA, forecast paths of hurricanes are most commonly communicated to the public through the cone of uncertainty (CoU). This visualization has several recognized flaws, including being susceptible to the psychological bias known as the containment effect. The present work tested the CoU against a dynamic set of ensembles, referred to as Animated Risk Trajectories (ARTs). In the current study, ARTs depicted the possible hurricane trajectory using instances moving at slow, medium, or fast speeds. Participants viewed either the CoU or ARTs visualization and made judgments of risk. Overall, the ARTs consistently mitigated the containment effect compared to the CoU. However, variations in the speed of the ARTs did not influence perceived levels of risk. Further examining which visual features of ARTs, like color or size, can be used to convey additional storm information is important for developing more effective and nuanced ways to enhance public safety and response to hurricane-prone regions.