What to Expect from Electoral Expectations

Abstract

While scholars recognize that the media devote significant attention to electoral expectations, most notably in the form of horse race coverage, little is known about the content of and variance in these media expectations. In this article, the author argues that the media's reporting on electoral expectations should vary in sensible and meaningful ways. In particular, he examines the basis for media expectations, the extent of this coverage, and how expectations coverage varies across electoral settings and over the course of elections. Based on an analysis of the media coverage of eight gubernatorial elections, the author demonstrates that while electoral expectations are a significant component of campaign coverage, the media expectations environment is less uniform than is typically assumed and that this variance in electoral expectations matters politically.