Accounting for Changes in Alcohol Use and Abuse in the United States

Abstract

Per capita alcohol consumption, teen drinking, and alcohol-involved traffic fatalities show declines ranging from 16% to 40% since their peaks around 1980. This article examines how beverage prices, the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA), population aging, and teen attitudes contributed to the declines. Two policy variables that have garnered much attention—taxes and the MLDA—appear to have played a minimal role. Alcohol prices declined, which encouraged more drinking rather than less, and large Federal excise tax increases occurred after much of the decline had already taken place. Increases in the legal drinking age account for only a fraction of the declines in teen drinking and traffic fatalities. Changes in the age distribution of the population can account for a substantial fraction of the decline in per capita consumption, but not the decline in teen drinking. Heightened anti-alcohol sentiment among high school seniors has played an important role in the decline in youth drinking. Educational programs and increased penalties/stiffer enforcement of driving under the influence laws probably contributed to the declines, but wide-ranging estimates make a quantitative assessment uncertain. Future research must account for complex social environments.