Determinants and Potential of Agri-Food Trade Using the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model: Empirical Evidence From Nigeria

Author:

Abdullahi Nazir Muhammad12ORCID,Huo Xuexi1,Zhang Qiangqiang1,Bolanle Azeez Aminah3

Affiliation:

1. Northwest A&F University, Shaanxi, China

2. Kano State Polytechnic, Nigeria

3. Ekiti State University, Nigeria

Abstract

Considering the importance of agri-food exports for Nigeria in the face of dwindling revenue from its oil exports. Therefore, this study provides empirical insights on the determinants and potential of agri-food exports from Nigeria to 70 major trading countries between 1995 and 2019 by applying a Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) on a gravity model. We also estimate a variety of techniques, including the fixed effects, Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML), and Heckman models to confirm the robustness of our results. We show that the economic size (GDP) of Nigeria and its trading countries, importers’ population, EU membership, ECOWAS membership and contiguity stimulate agri-food export. Also, we show that bilateral distance, domestic population, exchange rate, language, and landlocked adversely affect agri-food exports. The potential for agri-food trade expansion exists with mostly world biggest economies (including China, the USA, Brazil, India, Russia, Japan, and EU countries) and Nigeria’s border countries. Policy directions for agri-food export expansion are provided.

Funder

Earmarked Fund for China Agricultural Research System

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

General Social Sciences,General Arts and Humanities

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