Juvenile Risk Assessment Scale (JRAS): A Predictive Validity Study

Abstract

A New Jersey Supreme Court decision directed the New Jersey Attorney General's Office to develop a risk assessment scale specific to juvenile sex offenders, to be used to place juvenile sex offenders in risk tiers in accord with New Jersey's community notification law. In light of the court's decision, the scale previously used for both adults and juveniles in New Jersey was modified, creating the JRAS. The present article describes the development of the JRAS, as well as the predictive validity study that was conducted to determine the relationship between JRAS scores and recidivism. The predictive validity study found that the ability of the JRAS to predict both sex offense and non-sex offense recidivism is on the same level as other accepted scales. Factor analysis revealed that the major predictive factor in the JRAS was a general antisocial behavior factor.