Predicting Post-Discharge Outcome

Abstract

The ability of members of the multidisciplinary team and of elderly patients themselves to predict how patients will cope at home influences the successful outcome of discharge from hospital. Following the introduction of structured assessment of the physical, psychological and social function of patients on an acute elderly care unit, a study was undertaken to compare the predictive ability of the primary nurse, the patient and the occupational therapist. Overall, results suggested a high level of accuracy of predictions. There was a trend for the occupational therapist to predict more accurately (83.6%) than the patient (80.7%) or the primary nurse (72.5%). Where the predictions were incorrect, the patients erred on the side of optimism (78% optimistic) whereas the nurses were more pessimistic (69% pessimistic). Further studies to look at the reliability of outcome predictions by health professionals and the patients themselves would be useful in the overall management of the discharge of elderly people from hospital.