India 2039—Transforming Agriculture: Productivity, Markets, and Institutions

Abstract

The central premise of this article is that Indian agriculture must undergo a fundamental transformation between now and 2039, both on the demand and supply side, by emphasizing higher value outputs, increased productivity, and redefined public and private sector roles. Driving this transformation will be the broader trends in the wider Indian and global economies: a dramatic shift in food demand away from staple food grains to higher value products (such as vegetables, milk, eggs, poultry, and fruits) caused by India’s affluence, rising energy costs, much higher rural wages, increasing international prices of agriculture inputs and outputs, the availability of new seeds and other technologies, and, importantly, adverse effects of global climate change. Given the limitations on expanding cultivable area and rising water distress, the only way to meet India’s food needs will be through dramatically increasing productivity and the efficiency of water use.