Trade and Migration: The Case of NAFTA

Abstract

Though the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) does not directly address the issue of migration and trade, the effects of NAFTA on Mexican migration to the United States will be closely watched. This article provides background information on NAFTA, reviews data on its economic effects, and summarizes studies and projections of NAFTA's likely effects on Mexico-to-U.S. migration. Migration factors (demand-pull, supply-push, and networks) are examined to determine whether NAFTA's effect on economic development particularly in the border areas will accelerate or retard migration. The conclusion is that NAFTA is likely to produce a temporary migration hump, slightly raising already high migration levels in the 1990s, but reducing the volume of Mexico-to-U.S. migration that would otherwise occur over subsequent decades.