Wet inrush susceptibility assessment at the Deep Ore Zone mine using a random forest machine learning model

Abstract

In cave mines, wet inrushes occur when there is an uncontrolled inflow of fine, wet material from drawpoints. Currently, uncertainty exists regarding the spatial-temporal pattern and severity of inrush incidents. This uncertainty arises from the limited understanding of wet inrush mechanisms within the complex conditions of a cave mine. In this study, the existing gaps in knowledge around the spatial and temporal patterns of inrush incidents were addressed using machine learning techniques. A random forest (RF) model was employed to analyse the inrush database collected at the Deep Ore Zone mine over several years. The conceptual understanding of inrush mechanisms and triggers, along with historical evidence, was employed to establish an initial set of key inrush variables to be used in the RF model. The developed RF model demonstrated promising performance with an accuracy of 85%. The feature importance results indicated that previous inrush history, fragment size, draw rate (short term and long term), differential draw index (short term and long term) and history of inrush at neighbouring drawpoints had the highest impact on inrush susceptibility. The insights gained provide an improved assessment of inrush susceptibility, thereby improving the strategies employed to mitigate inrush risk.