Winds of Change: Assessing China’s Assertive Turn in Foreign Policy

Abstract

The current debate on the question of whether China has become more assertive involves two opposing opinions on Beijing’s foreign policy orientation. This article argues that the key question is whether China is about to change its approach to foreign policy, one which has enabled its “peaceful rise” in recent decades. It examines variations in Chinese foreign policy by developing a set of interrelated indicators of changes in a state’s external behavior. The results reveal a marked increase in China’s military spending and power projection capability, foreign aid, and diplomatic initiatives after the 2008 global financial crisis, as well as an expansion of Beijing’s alliance commitments through the establishment of partnership relationships around the world. These findings not only support the increased assertiveness argument but also indicate a larger transformation in Chinese foreign policy—China is becoming more active diplomatically as part of its quest for great power status.