The Sex Ratio and Female Marital Opportunity as Historical Predictors of Violent Crime in England, Scotland, and the United States

Abstract

The effects of sex ratios and marriage markets on violent crime were investigated by regression analysis of temporal variation in violent crime rates in England and Wales (1856 to 1980), Scotland (1871 to 1980), and homicides in the United States (1900 to 1988). Independent variables included the sex ratio of adults (15 to 44 years), marital opportunity of women (ratio of single men to women at the peak age of marriage), illegitimacy ratios, and unemployment. For England and Wales, and Scotland, violent crimes against persons increased with the sex ratio and illegitimacy ratios and were inversely related to marital opportunities for women. For the United States, homicides were inversely related to marital opportunities for women. Reduced marital opportunity for women predicts violent crime independently of the sex ratio, as does illegitimacy. These associations were contemporaneous, suggesting a role of mating competition, rather than being delayed a generation, consistent with effects of reduced parental investment.