An assessment of the correlations and causations of palaeo-hydroclimatic variability in India’s monsoon-dominated Central Himalaya

Abstract

The Indian Central Himalaya Region (ICHR), the northern topographic front of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), is an ideal location to study topography-climate interactions because two weather systems—the ISM and mid-latitude westerlies (MLW)—create distinct eco-climatic regimes from tundra (north) to tropical (south). The region’s paleoclimatic studies show considerable climatic variations since the late Pleistocene. We evaluated 29 paleoclimatic records from the region and synthesized the results semi-quantitatively using the weighted palaeoclimate index (WApCI) to better understand the important climatic events and their driving mechanisms. According to the WApCI, the region has at least six enhanced monsoonal periods and eight drier spells during the past 34 ka. The cold-dry climatic events, such as the last glacial maxima (LGM), Younger Dryas (YD), 8.2 ka, and 4.2 ka, are associated with northern-hemisphere (NH) climate dynamics and propagated via MLWs. While, the warmer phases are dictated by the insolation-driven ISM dynamics. The WApCI’s reconstructed rainfall anomaly aligns with paleoclimatic-model experiments for dynamically generated Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Projects (PMIP3/PMIP4) rainfall for chosen time-slices (last-millenium, historical, mid-Holocene, and LGM). Finally, the Granger causality test determines the temporal relationship between the climatic drivers/forcing indices and primary meteorological parameters. The results showed that summer and post-monsoon precipitation is primarily influenced by total solar irradiation, winter precipitation is driven by a complex mix of variables, and pre-monsoon precipitation is driven by the Arctic oscillation. Based on the facts, we hypothesize that past climate variability demonstrates a complex interplay of local and hemisphere teleconnections in ICHR’s climate dynamics.