A modeling approach to estimate the historical population size of the Patagonian Kawésqar people

Abstract

The study of human-gatherers societies’ demography used to be a difficult task due to the lack of direct evidence to support the estimations. This is the case of several human groups from Pacific Patagonia whose historical population size estimations are controversial. This study estimated the historical population size for the Kawésqar people using direct and indirect evidence. Thus, we collated past estimations from experts and encounter rates distribution in time and space to generate a statistical approximation for population size. We used weights to include the reliability of such past estimations under three modeling scenarios. Our results indicate that the historical population ranged roughly between 3700 and 3900 individuals before the massive contact with Chileans and European people. The approach developed here for combining and integrating different evidence for estimating population in Kawésqar people, emerges as a promising and valuable tool to study the demography of other hunter-gatherer societies in South America.