Random walk simulations of fossil proxy data

Abstract

A wealth of palaeoecological studies (e.g. pollen, diatoms, chironomids and macrofossils from deposits such as lakes or bogs) have revealed major as well as more subtle ecosystem changes over decadal to multimillennial timescales. Such ecosystem changes are usually assumed to have been forced by specific environmental changes. Here, we test if the observed changes in palaeoecological records may be reproduced by random simulations, and we find that simple procedures generate abrupt events, long-term trends, quasi-cyclic behaviour, extinctions and immigrations. Our results highlight the importance of replicated and multiproxy data for reliable reconstructions of past climate and environmental changes.