From landslide to mudslide: The strategic marketing mistakes of the 2020–2023 New Zealand Labour Government

Abstract

This article explores how a political party’s fortunes can change extremely quickly, by examining the strategic errors behind the Labour Party’s 2023 loss in New Zealand. In October 2020, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and the Labour Party of New Zealand won a landslide majority. This secured a once in a generation chance to deliver transformational change. However, just over 2 years later, Ardern exited following a profound drop in popularity. Although a respected minister, Chris Hipkins, took over, the party then suffered a massive defeat. We apply a playbook developed for the 2020 election to identify the reasons behind such a downturn in fortunes, noting the speed of change of voter priorities and Labour’s failure to develop a clear vision or pivot to address changed priorities. We draw on multiple sources of data, including party policies, communications, polling data and the public engagement survey Vote Compass. This confirms that governments, to maintain support, must utilise appropriate market research and engage in careful political marketing planning, starting with understanding voter expectations from the last election.