Discovery reliability

Abstract

Whenever an experiment yields a statistically significant outcome you should ask yourself: To what extent can I trust this result? This is especially important for pre-clinical drug studies because of the frequent failures of phase III clinical trials of neurological diseases, which has put the reliability of pre-clinical research into question. Two important factors, the pre-study likelihood of treatment benefit, and statistical power, affects the reliability of the result in a quantifiable way. This can be used to assess to what extent the result of a study can be trusted (discovery reliability), and to guide the design of pre-clinical research.