Exploring the Potential of Using a Text-Based Game to Inform Simulation Models of Risky Migration Decisions

Abstract

Background In this paper, we explore the potential of games to collect empirical data for informing agent-based simulation models of migration. To examine the usefulness of game-based approaches, we conducted a simple, yet carefully designed psychological experiment. Methods In a preregistered study, we used a novel, immersive experimental setting to investigate the risky migration decisions made by migrants and non-migrants. Participants (284 migrants and 284 non-migrants) played a choice-based interactive fiction game—a fully text-based game where players progress by selecting from a list of possible actions—that involved making three risky migration decisions. In one condition, participants were shown a non-linear progress bar and explicit acknowledgements of the choices they made to promote perceived agency: the feeling that one’s actions have a non-trivial impact on the game. In the other condition, the progress bar was linear, and the explicit acknowledgements were omitted. Results Our experimental manipulation was successful; participants in the former condition self-reported higher perceived agency than participants in the latter condition, as did migrants compared to non-migrants. Nevertheless, condition and migrant status did not meaningfully affect the risky migration decisions participants made in the game. Conclusion These findings indicate that the results of generic studies on risky migration decisions conducted on non-migrants can potentially inform simulation models of migration. However, these findings were obtained from a single experiment, and thus warrant replication and further research before definitive conclusions can be drawn. Furthermore, a simple text-based game may be too superficial to allow deep insights into the idiosyncrasies of migration decision-making. This suggests a possible trade-off between clear interpretability of the results and the usefulness for informing simulation models of complex social processes, such as migration.