U.S. Constitutional Amendments, the Ratification Process, and Public Opinion: A Computer Simulation

Abstract

A computer simulation model tested the importance of several factors impacting the ratification of Constitutional amendments in the United States. Through sensitivity testing, two factors —the distribution of national opinion for approving an amendment across small and large states, and decision rules pertaining to the proportion of states required to ratify an amendment-were found to be significant. Two other factors —the time period used (which reflected various ratios of population differences between large and small states) and the weighting of state votes by state population -were not significant in determining the number of amendments ratified. The model implies that decision rules and public opinion, rather than state population differences "drive" the constitutional amendment ratification process.