The Hostage Crisis Simulation

Abstract

The HOSTAGE CRISIS SIMULATION was developed as part of a simulated real-world situation in which negotiators can be trained and experiments conducted. The work consists of a strategic model of negotiation and a sophisticated computer-based decision support system. Three central dimensions of negotiation are incorporated into this model: the role of time; the formation by the parties of preference orderings for different negotiated agreements and outcomes; and the availability of information to the parties. An additional feature of this project will be the design of an automated negotiation agent. This article presents the elements of the HOSTAGE CRISIS SIMULATION, based on the hijacking by Palestinians o a passenger plane bound from Europe to Israel and its forced landing at Cairv. It presents preliminary findings based on experimental runs of the model with undergraduate international relations students. Among the reported findings is confirmation that the performance of participants in simulated crisis negotiations improves with their exposure to decision support tools.