Eyewitness Confidence Does Not Necessarily Indicate Identification Accuracy

Abstract

Eyewitness identifications are prone to error. Scholars and legal stakeholders are exploring whether and when eyewitness confidence predicts identification accuracy. Scholars agree on a strong but imperfect relationship between initial confidence and accuracy under “pristine” (ideal) conditions. However, pristine conditions are not unfailingly present in criminal cases. Even when pristine conditions are present, high confidence is not always associated with high accuracy because other factors influence the confidence–accuracy relationship. Researchers have not yet reached a consensus about the many variables that may impact the confidence–accuracy relationship. Ultimately, legal practitioners should be cautious in using confidence as an indicator of accuracy.