Marking time on the way to democracy in Ukraine: A causal layered analysis

Abstract

The establishment of a democratic political system has been declared as one of the main priorities of Ukraine since gaining independence in 1991. Yet, three decades on, Ukraine’s democracy remains ineffective and superficial. It is thus productive—and apposite—to seek an alternative method for studying such a complicated and multidimensional problem. This article employs “causal layered analysis” (CLA), developed in Futures Studies to gain additional insight into the reasons for Ukraine’s incomplete and halting democratization. CLA aims to get to the underlying causes of problems and involves analysis at four “layers”: litany, system, worldview, and myth/metaphor. As we demonstrate here, this method can be fruitfully applied to better understand Ukraine’s democratization—or, rather, its lack of it. At the layer of litany, the main facts and data concerning democracy in Ukraine are summarized. The second—systemic layer—is related to the study of democratic transition based on the approaches of various academic disciplines and theories. The research at the third layer is concerned with interpretation of the problem within the framework of five worldviews. At the deepest layer, we identify and characterize some of the myths underlying the aforementioned worldviews. Based on these analyses, key problems are identified and prospects for the future democratization of Ukraine are outlined.