Explaining the Changing Nature of Homicide Clearance in Canada

Abstract

Canadian homicide clearance rates are higher than for any other type of crime, but clearance rates have been decreasing since the late 1960s and they are not uniform across the country. This article examines homicide clearance in Canada using data derived from the Canadian Homicide Survey to determine whether the evident temporal and geographical variations in clearance are explained by either victim characteristics or offense details. There are two competing theories regarding homicide clearance characteristics. On one hand, it is argued that the police use discretion when determining which cases deserving more attention. The alternate theory is that police apportion the same effort to all homicide cases, regardless of the victim’s status owing to the heinous nature of the crime; therefore, only case details impede the process of determining culpability. Using logistic regression analysis, this examination first focuses on the influence of time and geography on clearance probabilities and then compares the effect of victim characteristics and offense characteristics on clearance outcomes. Empirically nested models indicate that victim characteristics are not a robust predictor of clearance; offense characteristics are found to be more influential. However, both temporal and geographical factors remain important predictors of homicide clearance. The impacts of increasing gang- and drug-related homicides are discussed, as are implications for future research.