Base-Rate Bingo

Abstract

Alternative explanations for the thrice-replicated interaction between the presence andabsence of population data andsex on apprehension andvictimization risk were examined. Consistent with three previous experiments, men first exposed to population increase data were less apprehensive after reading a news story containing frequency depictions of increasing threat than were men not first exposed to population data. Women's apprehension levels were unaffected by exposure to population data. However, this interaction was reversedwhen a thought-listing task was interpolatedbetween the threatening story and the apprehension judgments. Although men showed significantly higher statistical skill levels than did women and individuals with higher levels of statistical skill reportedless apprehension, statistical skill did not account for the observedinteraction between sex andexposure to population data. Analyses of cognitive responses suggested that although both women and men heed relevant base-rate data, these data prompt men and women to alter the production of different cognitive responses. Sex differences in reportedapprehension as a function of exposure to base-rate data appear to be mediated by different cognitive responses to base-rate data.