Towards a General Model of Public Policy Outcomes

Abstract

This paper seeks to provide an initial formulation of a general model combining the main sequences of policy determination established in the comparative public policy outcomes literature. In Part I, two prior and crucial problems of explanation in this field are discussed: (1) that of making the analytical step from attributions of shared national characteristics to true explanatory variables and (2) that of adequate statistical modelling in a universe of discourse characterized by too many theories and not enough cases. Part II outlines a model of public policy outcomes, which combines demographic, political and economic sequences, and utilizes the process of model elaboration and the associated findings as a means of assessing the extent to which the explanatory problems in the field can presently be resolved.