Bayesian Model of Operator Challenges in Maritime Pilotage

Abstract

Maritime pilotage operations are required for many vessels in their early and final parts of their voyages. The pilotage operations are meant to increase safety and efficiency for sailing in challenging areas which local maritime pilots have expert knowledge of. Regardless, several accidents involving pilotage operations have occurred (e.g. Federal Kivalina, Godafoss, and Crete Cement accidents), suggesting necessary further research and understanding of the full extent of the associated operational challenges. In the current study, we empirically investigated and identified 15 challenges associated with a Norwegian pilotage operation using interviews and content analysis. The 15 challenges are quantified and integrated into a conceptual Bayesian Network model for helping to identify the probability of the crew to face complications during the pilotage. This modeling of navigational challenges in maritime operations can infer and pinpoint areas of improvement. Finally, we discuss the results and implications.