Modeling the Big Sky Theory

Abstract

This work examines the mathematical assumptions underlying the so-called “Big Sky Theory” (BST). Given stated assumptions about airspace geometry, the number of aircraft, and the flight parameters of each, Monte Carlo simulations are used to parameterize closed-solution probability estimates for both operational errors and metal-on-metal collisions. This methodology either confirms or disconfirms the BST as a functional separation maintenance “safety net” for air traffic control (ATC), depending on one's assumptions about the airspace and standards for separation.