Effective Method to Convey Threat Information for Tornado: Probabilistic Hazard Information vs. Deterministic Hazard Information

Abstract

Effective conveyance of hazard information to society is crucial for enhancing public preparedness for the uncertainty involved in the occurrence of tornadoes. The WarnGen system is currently used for issuing deterministic severe weather warnings. To provide society with probabilistic weather information, researchers at The National Severe Storm Laboratory are developing a tool called Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI). The current study reports an experiment intended to figure out if including information about the uncertainty of a tornado occurrence provided through PHI would help people understand the weather information better and take more appropriate protective action. Our group also wanted to investigate if including probabilistic information about the surrounding area of the target zone would be effective in people’s decision making regarding their safety. The results show that including information about uncertainty in the weather information makes it more effective than the deterministic hazard information in terms of perception, cognition, and protective actions of recipients. Also, presence of information about the target zone’s surrounding area does not have any significant effect on their decision making.