Visualizing Uncertainty to Improve Operators' Spatial Proximity Judgments in Uncertain Surroundings

Abstract

Graphic representations of uncertainty have been found to be a superior method of visualizing uncertainty in aviation and maritime operations. The primary aim of the present research was to examine the extent to which various uncertainty ellipse representations (50%, 75%, 95%, and 99%) affected decision making performance when participants were asked to judge the proximities of two or three targets to an own-ship position. The research comprised two separate studies, with 300 trials in each. Each trial required participants to utilize an uncertainty ellipse surrounding each of the targets in order to determine the closest target to the own-ship. Decision making performance was assessed via target decision accuracy analyses, reaction time analyses and the discrepancy between participants' associated probability estimate and the ground truth. The impact of feedback on the accuracy of participants' judgments was also examined in Study 2. The implications of the findings to naval systems, as well as directions for future research, are proposed.